Dix messages essentiels pour 2022
Notre approche top-down contriue à concevoir l'allocation stratégique d'actifs la mieux adaptée pour atteindre les objectifs de rendement à long terme d'un investisseur.
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1 — Le Retour de l'Etat interventionniste va peser sur les rentabilités à long terme
Les bouleversements économiques de ces quarante dernières années ont généré un certain nombre d’externalités négatives, telles que les inégalités de revenu et de fortune ou les difficultés d’accès aux soins et à une éducation de qualité. Les solutions pour y répondre passent soit par une incitation positive du marché, soit par l’intervention de l’Etat. Cette dernière est caractéristique de l’économie chinoise, par exemple, tandis que les Etats-Unis s’appuient plus largement sur les mécanismes de marché. L’Europe continentale se situe quelque part entre les deux. En ligne générale, nous pensons que l’interventionnisme des Etats pourrait prendre le pas sur les mécanismes du marché au cours des années à venir.
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2 — La Grande Divergence entre l'évolution de la dette et celle de la croissance constitue une source d'instabilité finacière
Depuis 1980, la croissance réelle de l’économie et la dette suivent des trajectoires divergentes. Ainsi, selon les chiffres de l’Institut de la finance internationale, le ratio dette totale (ménages, entreprises et Etat) / Pib, qui était de 140% avant 2008, dépasse aujourd’hui 350%. Ce ratio augmente encore, laissant penser qu’un endettement de plus en plus important est nécessaire pour générer une croissance réelle de moins en moins élevée. Ces trajectoires divergentes sont source d’instabilité financière, car en l’absence de forte croissance, l’inflation réduit la valeur des actifs et limite la marge de manœuvre en termes de politique économique. La soutenabilité de la dette constitue par conséquent un facteur central dans nos prévisions à long terme. La Grande divergence exige une gestion active des portefeuilles afin d’assurer que les investisseurs choisissent les acteurs économiques les plus solvables.
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3 — La Vague d'Innovation en cours arrive à maturité, ce qui affectera les rentabilités
Le reflux de la vague d’innovation en cours marque un profond changement structurel. De nouvelles entreprises et technologies de pointe émergeront progressivement, mais l’impact de l’innovation sur les marchés de la révolution technologique née il y a plus de 10 ans devrait faiblir – du moins jusqu’à ce qu’une nouvelle vague s’installe dans les prochaines années. Ainsi, la surperformance de 72 points de base affichée par le Nasdaq par rapport à l’indice S&P 500 au cours des dix dernières années, soit une moyenne de 6 points de pourcentage par an, devrait se tasser durant la prochaine décennie.
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4 —Après 40 ans de baisse continue de l'inflation, nous tablons sur une transition vers un régime d'inflation plus élevée dans la plupart des économies
Après avoir atteint un pic entre 12% et 15% en données annualisées au début des années 1980, le taux d’inflation n’a cessé de baisser, pour s’inscrire aux alentours de 1% dans certaines économies développées avant la pandémie. L’augmentation soudaine des prix en mi-2020, induite par un déséquilibre temporaire entre l’offre et la demande, cache une dynamique structurelle plus profonde, susceptible de se traduire par un changement de régime d’inflation au cours des dix prochaines années. Une inflation annuelle de l’ordre de 3% en moyenne aux Etats-Unis nous semble envisageable. Cinq facteurs expliquent ce changement de régime: l’évolution démographique, la dissipation des effets désinflationnistes de la vague d’innovations en cours, l’évolution des modèles économiques dans les pays émergents (en particulier en Chine), la tendance à la démondialisation, et, enfin, le retour à un Etat interventionniste en lien avec l’accélération de la lutte contre les externalités négatives.
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5 — Le Changement Climatique et l'Inflation devraient stimuler la croissance réelle
Les investissements nécessaires à la lutte contre le dérèglement climatique devraient doper la croissance à long terme (un thème déjà évoqué dans l’édition 2021 d’Horizon) de même que la hausse des salaires justifiée par le risque croissant d’instabilité sociale et politique. Cette progression des salaires permettra également d’amortir ou de compenser l’augmentation du coût de la vie qui s’annonce, raison pour laquelle nous anticipons toujours une croissance économique réelle ces 10 prochaines années, malgré le retour de l’inflation.
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6 — Rentabilités réelles et nominales: Une dstinction à nouveau nécessaire
Après de nombreuses années de très faible inflation, la distinction entre rentabilités réelles et nominales avait quasiment disparu du discours classique, et même du calcul des rentabilités et des performances relatives. Mais la transition vers un régime d’inflation structurelle plus élevée devrait entraîner un plus grand contraste entre les prévisions de rentabilité réelle et nominale que nous publions chaque année.
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7 — Les Rendements réels des liquidités et des obligations souveraines devraient rester profondéments négatifs
Dans les précédentes éditions d’Horizon, nous évoquions la perte d’attrait des liquidités. Aujourd’hui, le retour de l’inflation renforce notre conviction que les liquidités sont synonyme d’érosion du capital. Et le constat vaut aussi pour les obligations souveraines. Même si ces dernières conservent leur statut d’actifs de protection et de diversification en cas de chute prononcée des actions, leur valeur en termes de capital doit diminuer progressivement, compte tenu des rentabilités réelles négatives que nous anticipons. L’augmentation des coupons devrait toutefois en atténuer l’impact.
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8 — L'accélération de l'Inflation devrait renforcer l'attrait d'allocations d'actifs comparables à celles des fonds de dotation
Les classes d’actifs qui protègent le capital réel sont appelées à occuper une place croissante au sein des allocations de portefeuille. C’est notamment le cas des actifs réels – l’un des piliers des allocations des fonds de dotation (‘endowment’). La perspective d’une hausse de l’inflation structurelle renforce l’intérêt de l’approche des fonds de dotation à investissement — une approche que nous défendons depuis plusieurs années. Selon les circonstances, ceci permettrait de pencher un portefeuille davantage vers des actifs alternatifs , et en particulier des actifs réels tels que le private equity, l’immobilier ou l’immobilier non coté.
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9 — La dette privée et les obligations indexées sur l'inflation peuvent optimiser la diversification
Cette année, nous avons décidé d’inclure des prévisions de rentabilité à long terme pour la dette privée dans notre analyse, compte tenu du rôle croissant que la dette privée (qui fait partie intégrante de toute approche d’investissement par dotation), peut jouer dans l’optimisation de la diversification d’une allocation stratégique. Nous examinons aussi les obligations indexées sur l’inflation à ce même titre. Avec la hausse de l’inflation, leur rentabilité réelle élevée et leur adéquation avec une gestion active justifient l’inclusion de la dette privée et des obligations indexées dans les allocations stratégiques et devraient en améliorer les rendements réels.
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10 —La Définition d'une allocation d'actifs stratégique approppriée repose sur une définition précise des objectifs des investisseurs
Des sources d’instabilité financière croissantes, le changement de régime d’inflation, la nécessité de renforcer les allocations en actifs réels sont autant d’éléments exigeant une définition très précise des objectifs des investisseurs. Parmi les différents paramètres utilisés les objectifs de rentabilité réelle d’un investisseur, son horizon de placement et sa tolérance au risque demeurent déterminants. Nous continuons de considérer notre approche d’investissement par dotation comme appropriée dans l’environnement conjoncturel et financier dans lequel nous sommes destinés à évoluer au cours des prochaines années.
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